失業當自強 ~ Why the Rout in Financials Isn't Over
Why the Rout in Financials Isn't Over
By ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL
June 30, 2008
金融世界為何仍紛擾不休？
By Robin Goldwyn Bluementhal
2008年六月三十日
Don't bank on a quick turnaround for the financial-services sector. 別指望金融服務業迴光返照
HOW LOW CAN THEY GO? Ever since the credit crisis began last summer, financial-services stocks have been spiraling down. Just last week, Citigroup plunged to a 10-year low as Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Sell.
他們還能撐多久？從去年夏天信貸風暴開始，金融服務類股持續下探。就在上周花旗集團跌到10年低點，使得高盛降低評比為「賣出」。
Two Tops Too Many: The industry's stocks have formed a "double top" in the past 10 years -- often an ominous sign. Plus, the highs of last year were higher than those before the woes of 1998. Warns Louise Yamada: "The bigger the top, the bigger the drop."
雙峰真是夠了：金融股在過去十年形成雙峰，而這通常代表的是警訊。另外，去年的一些高點都比悲情1998年之前的都還要高。Louise Yamada提出警告「爬越高，跌越深」！
Bottom fishers might want to reel in their lines: Louise Yamada, a top market technician, warns that the sector's rout is "far from over." Based on her reading of stock charts, some big names could fall another 40% or 50%. Citigroup (ticker: C), now about 18, could drop to 10 before the carnage is over, Yamada says. She adds there's a "good shot" financial stocks will fall from 16% of the Standard & Poor's 500 index today to the single digits, a level not seen since 1980. As recently as last year, financials made up 22% of the index.
守在底線的釣客們可能該收線了—頂尖市場技術分 析師Louise Yamada語帶警告地表示這場騷動要鬧完還久呢。根據她對股市線圖的解讀，一些大公司還會再跌四至五成。Yamada表示，花旗集團（代號：C）目前是 18塊，但在浩劫結束前可能會降到10塊；她進一步表示，金融類股甚至會從目前標準普爾五百指數的16%跌到個位數，來到1980年以來從未有過的水準。 才在去年，金融股在該指數上漲了22%。
Though bulls have argued that the woes of the financials may prove relatively short-lived, as in 1998, Yamada says those comparisons are specious. "There's nothing to suggest financials have had this kind of structural decline probably since the 1920s or '30s," she tells Barron's.
儘管股市牛人們認為金融悲歌總是唱不長久，就像1998年的情況一樣，但Yamada表示這樣拿來比較是似是而非的。她向本刊表示「可能遠自1920或30年代以來，金融類股都未曾出現過如此結構性衰退的跡象」。
Yamada's sharp calls have earned her a strong following over the past three decades. She headed up technical analysis at Smith Barney for 25 years before starting her own firm, Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, in 2005.
在過去三十年來，Yamada 的疾言聲切也為她帶來不少忠實擁護者。她在2005年開了間自己的公司「Yamada 市場技術研究顧問」，而在此之前她在Smith Barney 的市場技術分析團隊領軍了25年之久。
Citigroup: A Sorry Supermarket
The banking giant has had a double top of its own, and many of its price supports have broken down. Yamada says the stock, hit hard last week, could fall to as little as $10 from about $18 now.
讓人心疼的超級市場—花旗集團
銀行業巨人出現雙峰線型，許多價格支撐點都已經瓦解。Yamada表示，這支上週重創的股票可能會從現在的18塊，最慘跌到10塊。
The financial sector's chart patterns, she warned in a recent report to clients, "carry much greater negative implications" than they did in the financial crisis of 1998, which was triggered by the collapse of the Russian ruble. In '98, both the prices of financial stocks and their strength relative to the market peaked at much lower levels than last year. And, as Yamada reminds her readers, "the bigger the top, the bigger the drop; and the bigger the drop, the longer the need for repair." That's why she thinks it will be years before these stocks recover and sustain their gains. (Barron's cover story "A New Road Map for the Street," hints at how Wall Street firms ultimately may reinvent themselves.)
她在最近的報告中向客戶提出警訊：比起1998年因俄國盧布暴跌所引發的金融風暴，目前金融股的走勢，隱含了更 嚴重的的負面訊息。當年的金融股價格和力道與市場相較起來，高點都比前一年水準來的低；同時Yamada也提醒她的讀者「爬的越高，跌的越深，好的越 慢」。這也是她之所以認為要等到市場恢復並維持獲利還得要好些年。（Barron’s的封面故事「華爾街新地圖」也暗示了華爾街的眾多公司終將創造新我）
Yamada has been predicting trouble since late 2005, and by March of last year had rated most of the sector's sub-industries, such as brokerage firms and mortgage companies, Avoid or Sell. Now, she says, financials are "just starting to go to new lows," and the relative strength across all groups in the sector "looks awful."
Yamada 從2005後期就開始預言災難到來；而到了去年的三月便開始對大多數金融附屬產業，像是仲介公司及貸款公司，評上「避免」或「賣出」。她表示，金融業現在才剛開始要走向新低，而涵蓋所有群聚的力道，看起來都很糟糕。
Citigroup became a candidate for trouble when its stock produced a "double top" in the eight years since 2000. That's often an ominous sign. Then, last year, the stock's relative-strength indicator broke a 17-year uptrend, and multiple price supports gave way, Yamada says. She suggests the shares could easily fall to 15 and possibly to 10.
從2000年起的八年期間，花旗集團的股票形成雙峰線型，從此列為麻煩名單的一員，而這通常是不祥的預兆。Yamada表示，去年股票的相對力道指標打破了17年來向上的趨勢，許多價格支撐點也棄守了。她認為價格會輕易的跌到15塊，並可能落在10塊。
Fifth Third: No Longer First -- Time was when this regional bank was revered for its efficient operations. But its shares have fallen far and broken through a critical support level, 30. They could drop another 50%, Yamada says.
Firth Third: 第一不再
這間地區銀行的確因營運良好而風光一時。但目前股價已經跌破關鍵支撐點30塊；Yamada表示還有可能再貶五成。
Citi is hardly the only bank with a troubling stock chart. Cincinnati-based bank Fifth Third Bancorp(FITB), which recently said it will slash its dividend by 66% and sell $1 billion in convertible preferred stock to shore up its balance sheet, has declined to 10 from 69. Having broken through a 10-year support of 30, the stock may be experiencing a final "capitulation" phase and could fall another 50%, Yamada says. Then there's Merrill Lynch (MER), recently about 33. Though Yamada says the stock conceivably could rally to 44 or 45, she'd use any strength as an opportunity to lighten up -- because the risk is toward 30 or even 20.
花旗不會是唯一有麻煩線圖的銀行。辛辛那堤地區銀行Fifth Third Bancorp(FITB)近期宣佈將會透過減少發放66%的股利，同時售出十億美元的可轉換優先股票的方式穩住資產負債表的數字，但股價卻由69塊跌到 了10塊。由於跌破了十年支撐點的30塊大關，Yamada表示這支股票可能面臨最後的「整固」階段，且有可能再大跌50%。另外還有美林(MER)，最 近來到33塊； Yamada表示雖然這支股票可能有44或45塊的前景，但她會盡一切可能去降低投資，因為風險可能會是30甚至20塊。
Merrill Lynch: Where's the Bull? -- The brokerage behemoth's shares reached a top of about 100 but are now flirting with a resistance point of 38. Yamada's prediction: They may rally a bit but are at risk of heading to 20.
美林：牛市在哪兒啊？
這隻券商巨獸的股票曾到達約100的頂點，但現在急墜至38左右的抗點。Yamada預測，股價可能會回升一些，但仍有直落到20的風險。
In short, it's no time to be banking on the banks. As Don Coxe, global portfolio strategist at Canada's BMO Capital Markets, put it recently: "It looks as if all big banks on Wall Street are going to be places where not only would you not want to own their stocks but not even have deposits with them." Lock up the vaults, folks.
簡言之，已經沒時間指望金融業。任職於加拿大BMP Capital Markets的全球投資組合策略專家Don Coxe在最近表示：看來華爾街的所有大銀行都要萬劫不復了，你不但不想擁有他們的股票，更不會想要存錢。把金庫鎖好來吧，各位。
**************************
$$Copyright: 原文所有權為 Barron's 所有，嚴禁使用於商業用途$$
##Copyleft: 中文所有權為本網站所有，歡迎告知後取用##
By ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL
June 30, 2008
金融世界為何仍紛擾不休？
By Robin Goldwyn Bluementhal
2008年六月三十日
Don't bank on a quick turnaround for the financial-services sector. 別指望金融服務業迴光返照
HOW LOW CAN THEY GO? Ever since the credit crisis began last summer, financial-services stocks have been spiraling down. Just last week, Citigroup plunged to a 10-year low as Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Sell.
他們還能撐多久？從去年夏天信貸風暴開始，金融服務類股持續下探。就在上周花旗集團跌到10年低點，使得高盛降低評比為「賣出」。
Two Tops Too Many: The industry's stocks have formed a "double top" in the past 10 years -- often an ominous sign. Plus, the highs of last year were higher than those before the woes of 1998. Warns Louise Yamada: "The bigger the top, the bigger the drop."
雙峰真是夠了：金融股在過去十年形成雙峰，而這通常代表的是警訊。另外，去年的一些高點都比悲情1998年之前的都還要高。Louise Yamada提出警告「爬越高，跌越深」！
Bottom fishers might want to reel in their lines: Louise Yamada, a top market technician, warns that the sector's rout is "far from over." Based on her reading of stock charts, some big names could fall another 40% or 50%. Citigroup (ticker: C), now about 18, could drop to 10 before the carnage is over, Yamada says. She adds there's a "good shot" financial stocks will fall from 16% of the Standard & Poor's 500 index today to the single digits, a level not seen since 1980. As recently as last year, financials made up 22% of the index.
守在底線的釣客們可能該收線了—頂尖市場技術分 析師Louise Yamada語帶警告地表示這場騷動要鬧完還久呢。根據她對股市線圖的解讀，一些大公司還會再跌四至五成。Yamada表示，花旗集團（代號：C）目前是 18塊，但在浩劫結束前可能會降到10塊；她進一步表示，金融類股甚至會從目前標準普爾五百指數的16%跌到個位數，來到1980年以來從未有過的水準。 才在去年，金融股在該指數上漲了22%。
Though bulls have argued that the woes of the financials may prove relatively short-lived, as in 1998, Yamada says those comparisons are specious. "There's nothing to suggest financials have had this kind of structural decline probably since the 1920s or '30s," she tells Barron's.
儘管股市牛人們認為金融悲歌總是唱不長久，就像1998年的情況一樣，但Yamada表示這樣拿來比較是似是而非的。她向本刊表示「可能遠自1920或30年代以來，金融類股都未曾出現過如此結構性衰退的跡象」。
Yamada's sharp calls have earned her a strong following over the past three decades. She headed up technical analysis at Smith Barney for 25 years before starting her own firm, Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, in 2005.
在過去三十年來，Yamada 的疾言聲切也為她帶來不少忠實擁護者。她在2005年開了間自己的公司「Yamada 市場技術研究顧問」，而在此之前她在Smith Barney 的市場技術分析團隊領軍了25年之久。
Citigroup: A Sorry Supermarket
The banking giant has had a double top of its own, and many of its price supports have broken down. Yamada says the stock, hit hard last week, could fall to as little as $10 from about $18 now.
讓人心疼的超級市場—花旗集團
銀行業巨人出現雙峰線型，許多價格支撐點都已經瓦解。Yamada表示，這支上週重創的股票可能會從現在的18塊，最慘跌到10塊。
The financial sector's chart patterns, she warned in a recent report to clients, "carry much greater negative implications" than they did in the financial crisis of 1998, which was triggered by the collapse of the Russian ruble. In '98, both the prices of financial stocks and their strength relative to the market peaked at much lower levels than last year. And, as Yamada reminds her readers, "the bigger the top, the bigger the drop; and the bigger the drop, the longer the need for repair." That's why she thinks it will be years before these stocks recover and sustain their gains. (Barron's cover story "A New Road Map for the Street," hints at how Wall Street firms ultimately may reinvent themselves.)
她在最近的報告中向客戶提出警訊：比起1998年因俄國盧布暴跌所引發的金融風暴，目前金融股的走勢，隱含了更 嚴重的的負面訊息。當年的金融股價格和力道與市場相較起來，高點都比前一年水準來的低；同時Yamada也提醒她的讀者「爬的越高，跌的越深，好的越 慢」。這也是她之所以認為要等到市場恢復並維持獲利還得要好些年。（Barron’s的封面故事「華爾街新地圖」也暗示了華爾街的眾多公司終將創造新我）
Yamada has been predicting trouble since late 2005, and by March of last year had rated most of the sector's sub-industries, such as brokerage firms and mortgage companies, Avoid or Sell. Now, she says, financials are "just starting to go to new lows," and the relative strength across all groups in the sector "looks awful."
Yamada 從2005後期就開始預言災難到來；而到了去年的三月便開始對大多數金融附屬產業，像是仲介公司及貸款公司，評上「避免」或「賣出」。她表示，金融業現在才剛開始要走向新低，而涵蓋所有群聚的力道，看起來都很糟糕。
Citigroup became a candidate for trouble when its stock produced a "double top" in the eight years since 2000. That's often an ominous sign. Then, last year, the stock's relative-strength indicator broke a 17-year uptrend, and multiple price supports gave way, Yamada says. She suggests the shares could easily fall to 15 and possibly to 10.
從2000年起的八年期間，花旗集團的股票形成雙峰線型，從此列為麻煩名單的一員，而這通常是不祥的預兆。Yamada表示，去年股票的相對力道指標打破了17年來向上的趨勢，許多價格支撐點也棄守了。她認為價格會輕易的跌到15塊，並可能落在10塊。
Fifth Third: No Longer First -- Time was when this regional bank was revered for its efficient operations. But its shares have fallen far and broken through a critical support level, 30. They could drop another 50%, Yamada says.
Firth Third: 第一不再
這間地區銀行的確因營運良好而風光一時。但目前股價已經跌破關鍵支撐點30塊；Yamada表示還有可能再貶五成。
Citi is hardly the only bank with a troubling stock chart. Cincinnati-based bank Fifth Third Bancorp(FITB), which recently said it will slash its dividend by 66% and sell $1 billion in convertible preferred stock to shore up its balance sheet, has declined to 10 from 69. Having broken through a 10-year support of 30, the stock may be experiencing a final "capitulation" phase and could fall another 50%, Yamada says. Then there's Merrill Lynch (MER), recently about 33. Though Yamada says the stock conceivably could rally to 44 or 45, she'd use any strength as an opportunity to lighten up -- because the risk is toward 30 or even 20.
花旗不會是唯一有麻煩線圖的銀行。辛辛那堤地區銀行Fifth Third Bancorp(FITB)近期宣佈將會透過減少發放66%的股利，同時售出十億美元的可轉換優先股票的方式穩住資產負債表的數字，但股價卻由69塊跌到 了10塊。由於跌破了十年支撐點的30塊大關，Yamada表示這支股票可能面臨最後的「整固」階段，且有可能再大跌50%。另外還有美林(MER)，最 近來到33塊； Yamada表示雖然這支股票可能有44或45塊的前景，但她會盡一切可能去降低投資，因為風險可能會是30甚至20塊。
Merrill Lynch: Where's the Bull? -- The brokerage behemoth's shares reached a top of about 100 but are now flirting with a resistance point of 38. Yamada's prediction: They may rally a bit but are at risk of heading to 20.
美林：牛市在哪兒啊？
這隻券商巨獸的股票曾到達約100的頂點，但現在急墜至38左右的抗點。Yamada預測，股價可能會回升一些，但仍有直落到20的風險。
In short, it's no time to be banking on the banks. As Don Coxe, global portfolio strategist at Canada's BMO Capital Markets, put it recently: "It looks as if all big banks on Wall Street are going to be places where not only would you not want to own their stocks but not even have deposits with them." Lock up the vaults, folks.
簡言之，已經沒時間指望金融業。任職於加拿大BMP Capital Markets的全球投資組合策略專家Don Coxe在最近表示：看來華爾街的所有大銀行都要萬劫不復了，你不但不想擁有他們的股票，更不會想要存錢。把金庫鎖好來吧，各位。
**************************
$$Copyright: 原文所有權為 Barron's 所有，嚴禁使用於商業用途$$
##Copyleft: 中文所有權為本網站所有，歡迎告知後取用##