失業當自強 ~ Sandwiched
The Big Mac Index
Sandwiched
大麥克指數
上下包夾
Jul 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年七月24日
The Economist print edition
Burgernomics says currencies are very dear in Europe but very cheap in Asia
漢堡經濟學顯示：歐洲貨幣火紅夯 亞洲貨幣跳樓賣
EVER since the credit storms first broke last August, the prices of stocks, bonds, gold and other investment assets have been blown this way and that. Currencies have been pushed around too. Did this buffeting bring them any closer to their underlying fair value? Not according to the Big Mac Index, our lighthearted guide to exchange rates. Many currencies look more out of whack than in July 2007, when we last compared burger prices.
自從去年八月的信貸風暴以來，不管是股價、債券、黃金，與其他資產，都被吹的七葷八素，當然貨幣也不可倖免。如此一場風暴是否把貨幣價值拉回正常價位？透過生活化的匯率指標「大麥克指數」來看，答案是否定的。比起我們去年七月對漢堡價格做的比較，許多貨幣看來都亂了套。
The Big Mac Index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), which says that exchange rates should move to make the price of a basket of goods the same in each country. Our basket contains just a single item, a Big Mac hamburger, but one that is sold around the world. The exchange rate that leaves a Big Mac costing the same in dollars everywhere is our fair-value yardstick.
大麥克指數是根據購買力平價指數(PPP)而來，該指數說明匯率應使各國商品組合價格水準相同。而此商品組合僅有一項商品，那就是走遍世界都買的到的大麥克漢堡。我們所採用的量尺，就是讓全球大麥克價格在換算成美金後均等值的那個匯率。
Only a handful of currencies are close to their Big Mac PPP. Of the seven currencies that make up the Federal Reserve’s major-currency index, only one (the Australian dollar) is within 10% of its fair value. Most of the rest look expensive. The euro is overvalued by a massive 50%. The British pound, Swedish krona, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar are also trading well above their burger benchmark. All are more overvalued against the dollar than a year ago. Only the Japanese yen, undervalued by 27%, could be considered a snip.
只有極少數的貨幣接近他們的大麥克平價指數。在聯準會主要貨幣指標的七種貨幣之中，只有澳幣是在公平價值(fair value)的10%以內，其他貨幣看來都過高。歐元溢價高達50%；英鎊、瑞典克朗、瑞士法郎和加幣也都高過正常的漢堡水準。早在一年以前，所有貨幣相較於美金都被高估了，唯一例外的就是日圓，低估達27%。
The dollar still buys a lot of burger in the rest of Asia too. The Singapore dollar is undervalued by 18% and the South Korean won by 12%. The currencies of less well-off Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, look even cheaper. China’s currency is among the most undervalued, though a bit less so than a year ago.
美金在亞洲其他國家仍然可以買上許多漢堡。新加坡幣被低估18%，南韓圜則為12%。而在其他較不富裕的亞洲國家如印尼、馬來西亞和泰國，貨幣甚至更為低廉。雖然比起去年稍微成長，但中國貨幣也列名其中。
The angrier type of China-basher might conclude that the yuan should revalue so that it is much closer to its burger standard. But care needs to be taken when drawing hard conclusions from fast-food prices. PPP measures show where currencies should end up in the long run. Prices vary with local costs, such as rents and wages, which are lower in poor countries, as well as with the price of ingredients that trade across borders. For this reason, PPP is a more reliable comparison for the currencies of economies with similar levels of income.
激進的反共派或許認為應該重新對人民幣評價，使其接近正常漢堡水平，但是要從速食指標中得到結論，必須要非常小心。購買力平價指數顯示貨幣長期應有的水準；通常在貧窮國家較為低廉的房租或薪資成本，或是跨國原料的價格，都會造成整體價格的不同。如此一來，購買力平價指數在相近收入水平的經濟體比較上，相對更具說服力。
For all these caveats, more sophisticated analyses come to broadly similar conclusions to our own. John Lipsky, number two at the IMF, said this week that the euro is above the fund’s medium-term valuation benchmark. China’s currency is “substantially undervalued” in the IMF’s view. The dollar is sandwiched in between. The big drop in the greenback’s value since 2002 has left it “close to its medium-term equilibrium level,” said Mr Lipsky.
基於以上種種，許多複雜的分析同樣也導出了累似的結論。國際貨幣基金副總裁John Lipsky本週表示：歐元已經超過了本基金的中期評價標準，人民幣大幅被低估，而美金則被夾在中間。美金自2002年以來的貶值，使其較為接近中期的平衡水準。
If that judgment is right, the squalls stirred up by the credit crises have moved at least one currency—the world’s reserve money—closer to fair value. Curiously the crunch has not shaken faith in two currencies favoured by yield-hungry investors: the Brazilian real and Turkish lira. These two stand out as emerging-market currencies that trade well above their Big Mac PPPs. Both countries have high interest rates. Turkey’s central bank recently raised its benchmark rate to 16.75%; Brazil’s pushed its key rate up to 13% on July 23rd. These rates offer juicy returns for those willing to bear the risks. Those searching for a value meal should look elsewhere.
如果該判斷屬實，則信貸風暴所擾起的旋風至少使某種貨幣更接其公平價值，那就是全球存款準備金。奇怪的是，這樣的危機竟無法動搖兩種貨幣在投資客心中的地位：巴西雷亞爾以及土耳其里拉。這兩種新興市場貨幣的行情超過了它們的大麥克平價指數，同時這兩個國家的利率也相當高。土爾其中央銀行最近提高其利率水準至16.75%，巴西於七月23日將其主要利率提高到13%。這樣的利率提供了套利者相當誘人的利息收入。那些想要找超值全餐的人們，該試試別的地方了。
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Sandwiched
大麥克指數
上下包夾
Jul 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年七月24日
The Economist print edition
Burgernomics says currencies are very dear in Europe but very cheap in Asia
漢堡經濟學顯示：歐洲貨幣火紅夯 亞洲貨幣跳樓賣
EVER since the credit storms first broke last August, the prices of stocks, bonds, gold and other investment assets have been blown this way and that. Currencies have been pushed around too. Did this buffeting bring them any closer to their underlying fair value? Not according to the Big Mac Index, our lighthearted guide to exchange rates. Many currencies look more out of whack than in July 2007, when we last compared burger prices.
自從去年八月的信貸風暴以來，不管是股價、債券、黃金，與其他資產，都被吹的七葷八素，當然貨幣也不可倖免。如此一場風暴是否把貨幣價值拉回正常價位？透過生活化的匯率指標「大麥克指數」來看，答案是否定的。比起我們去年七月對漢堡價格做的比較，許多貨幣看來都亂了套。
The Big Mac Index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), which says that exchange rates should move to make the price of a basket of goods the same in each country. Our basket contains just a single item, a Big Mac hamburger, but one that is sold around the world. The exchange rate that leaves a Big Mac costing the same in dollars everywhere is our fair-value yardstick.
大麥克指數是根據購買力平價指數(PPP)而來，該指數說明匯率應使各國商品組合價格水準相同。而此商品組合僅有一項商品，那就是走遍世界都買的到的大麥克漢堡。我們所採用的量尺，就是讓全球大麥克價格在換算成美金後均等值的那個匯率。
Only a handful of currencies are close to their Big Mac PPP. Of the seven currencies that make up the Federal Reserve’s major-currency index, only one (the Australian dollar) is within 10% of its fair value. Most of the rest look expensive. The euro is overvalued by a massive 50%. The British pound, Swedish krona, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar are also trading well above their burger benchmark. All are more overvalued against the dollar than a year ago. Only the Japanese yen, undervalued by 27%, could be considered a snip.
只有極少數的貨幣接近他們的大麥克平價指數。在聯準會主要貨幣指標的七種貨幣之中，只有澳幣是在公平價值(fair value)的10%以內，其他貨幣看來都過高。歐元溢價高達50%；英鎊、瑞典克朗、瑞士法郎和加幣也都高過正常的漢堡水準。早在一年以前，所有貨幣相較於美金都被高估了，唯一例外的就是日圓，低估達27%。
The dollar still buys a lot of burger in the rest of Asia too. The Singapore dollar is undervalued by 18% and the South Korean won by 12%. The currencies of less well-off Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, look even cheaper. China’s currency is among the most undervalued, though a bit less so than a year ago.
美金在亞洲其他國家仍然可以買上許多漢堡。新加坡幣被低估18%，南韓圜則為12%。而在其他較不富裕的亞洲國家如印尼、馬來西亞和泰國，貨幣甚至更為低廉。雖然比起去年稍微成長，但中國貨幣也列名其中。
The angrier type of China-basher might conclude that the yuan should revalue so that it is much closer to its burger standard. But care needs to be taken when drawing hard conclusions from fast-food prices. PPP measures show where currencies should end up in the long run. Prices vary with local costs, such as rents and wages, which are lower in poor countries, as well as with the price of ingredients that trade across borders. For this reason, PPP is a more reliable comparison for the currencies of economies with similar levels of income.
激進的反共派或許認為應該重新對人民幣評價，使其接近正常漢堡水平，但是要從速食指標中得到結論，必須要非常小心。購買力平價指數顯示貨幣長期應有的水準；通常在貧窮國家較為低廉的房租或薪資成本，或是跨國原料的價格，都會造成整體價格的不同。如此一來，購買力平價指數在相近收入水平的經濟體比較上，相對更具說服力。
For all these caveats, more sophisticated analyses come to broadly similar conclusions to our own. John Lipsky, number two at the IMF, said this week that the euro is above the fund’s medium-term valuation benchmark. China’s currency is “substantially undervalued” in the IMF’s view. The dollar is sandwiched in between. The big drop in the greenback’s value since 2002 has left it “close to its medium-term equilibrium level,” said Mr Lipsky.
基於以上種種，許多複雜的分析同樣也導出了累似的結論。國際貨幣基金副總裁John Lipsky本週表示：歐元已經超過了本基金的中期評價標準，人民幣大幅被低估，而美金則被夾在中間。美金自2002年以來的貶值，使其較為接近中期的平衡水準。
If that judgment is right, the squalls stirred up by the credit crises have moved at least one currency—the world’s reserve money—closer to fair value. Curiously the crunch has not shaken faith in two currencies favoured by yield-hungry investors: the Brazilian real and Turkish lira. These two stand out as emerging-market currencies that trade well above their Big Mac PPPs. Both countries have high interest rates. Turkey’s central bank recently raised its benchmark rate to 16.75%; Brazil’s pushed its key rate up to 13% on July 23rd. These rates offer juicy returns for those willing to bear the risks. Those searching for a value meal should look elsewhere.
如果該判斷屬實，則信貸風暴所擾起的旋風至少使某種貨幣更接其公平價值，那就是全球存款準備金。奇怪的是，這樣的危機竟無法動搖兩種貨幣在投資客心中的地位：巴西雷亞爾以及土耳其里拉。這兩種新興市場貨幣的行情超過了它們的大麥克平價指數，同時這兩個國家的利率也相當高。土爾其中央銀行最近提高其利率水準至16.75%，巴西於七月23日將其主要利率提高到13%。這樣的利率提供了套利者相當誘人的利息收入。那些想要找超值全餐的人們，該試試別的地方了。
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