失業當自強 ~ Qualcomm Could Win Big As the iPhone 3G Calls
Qualcomm Could Win Big As the iPhone 3G Calls
By ERIC J. SAVITZ
iPhone 3G 一開通 高通贏面跟著來
By ERIC J. SAVITZ
Qualcomm is set to cash in on the growth in smartphones.
Gadget of the Week: Apple iPhone 3G
高通計畫透過智慧型手機的成長大賺一番
本週小玩意兒：蘋果iPhone 3G
BY THE TIME YOU READ THIS, the first wave of Apple (ticker: AAPL) enthusiasts will have their hands on the nifty new iPhone 3G. It has several key improvements over the original model, in particular its ability to use speedy 3G networks for accessing the Web. The phone's debut has implications for a host of other companies: It sets the stage for a dramatic increase in Apple's share of the handset market, thus raising the bar for players who wish to enter or stay competitive, and it provides a new software platform for application developers. It also turns 3G into a mainstream technology. And that is good news, indeed, for Qualcomm (QCOM).
當你看到這時，蘋果(AAPL)玩家們就已經在把玩時尚精品iPhone 3G了。與一代相比，二代對重要功能做了許多改善，尤其是透過高速3G網路瀏覽網路的功能。對其他公司來說iPhone的出現有許多象徵意義：為增加蘋果手機市佔率搭了舞台，提高對手進入或維持市場競爭力的門檻，同時提供軟體開發人員新的軟體平台。iPhone也順勢讓3G成為主流科技，而對高通來說(QCOM)這確實是個好消息！
Qualcomm has two main businesses. It makes chips for handsets; that business generated $5.8 billion in revenue last year. And it licenses technology to handset makers, a business that raked in $3.1 billion in '07. In a report launching coverage of the stock with a Buy rating, Citigroup's Glen Yeung noted last week that Qualcomm collects a royalty on almost every 3G phone sold (except Nokia phones; it is embroiled in a messy royalty dispute with Nokia [NOK]).
高通有兩項主要業務：生產手機晶片，並在去年達到營收美金58億元；而透過核准技術廠商執照，在2007年為公司帶來31億元的營收。花旗分析師Glen Yeung的投資報告中建議買入該公司股票，並在上週指出，幾乎每賣出一隻3G手機，高通都可以進行抽稅（Nokia手機除外，該公司捲入與Nokia間的龐大稅金糾紛）。
Yeung also observed that Qualcomm is a direct beneficiary of the growing market for smartphones. Apple is providing evidence that smartphones are an increasingly popular choice for consumers as well as corporate Crackberry users. And, Yeung notes, as buyers switch from older, cheaper "feature phones" to more capable -- and more expensive -- smartphones, Qualcomm benefits.
Yeung同時也觀察到高通直接受惠於智慧型手機市場的高度成長。對一般消費者以及企業用戶級的黑莓族來說，蘋果都證明了智慧型手機確實越來越受歡迎。Yeung更指出，當消費者從便宜的基本功能手機換成更多功且昂貴的智慧型手機時，高通便因此而獲利。
I sat down for a chat last week in San Francisco with Bill Davidson, Qualcomm's senior V.P. for global marketing and investor relations. Davidson confirmed Yeung's view that average selling prices for handsets are going up. At the start of the year, Qualcomm had forecast an ASP for the September 2008 fiscal year of $203; the company's most recent estimate is $217. Growing demand for smartphones partly explains the rise, says Davidson, as consumers now want more features in lower-end phones.
上週我在舊金山的時候，和掌管高通全球行銷與投資人關係的資深副理Bill Davidson小聊一番。對於Yeung認為手機平均售價提高這樣的看法表示同意。年初高通預估2008會計年度九月份的股價為美金203元，而公司最近的一次欲估價是217塊。Davidson表示智慧型手機需求面的成長是一部分原因，因為消費者希望低階手機能有更多的功能。
Davidson concedes that ASPs can't continue to increase forever; but he says "you can run scenarios" where the expanding market for smartphones has a positive effect on ASPs "for some time to come."
Davidson承認預估價也不可能永遠攀高，但他也說：因為持續擴大的智慧型手機市場對於股價有正面效益，所以你可以撒一些種子，然後等著它開花結果。
Meanwhile, Davidson sees huge potential for Qualcomm to expand beyond phones, due to its new Snapdragon processor. He imagines the Snapdragon powering two classes of devices: "pocketable computing devices," with four- to seven-inch screens, and "mobile computing devices" with seven- to 10-inch screens. Think oversized iPhones at one end and small laptops on the other.
另一方面，Davidson也看到了高通在手機市場以外的巨大潛力：Snapdragon處理器。他想像著Snapdragon搭配並強化兩種裝置，一種是有著四到七吋螢幕的「口袋電腦」，另一種是七至十吋螢幕的「行動電腦」。也就是放大版的iPhone還有縮小版的筆記型電腦。
Qualcomm isn't the only company targeting the uncharted turf between phones and laptops; Intel (INTC) also has zeroed in on the new MID (mobile intelligent device) market, with its new Atom processor. Qualcomm contends it has a power advantage over Intel's chip; Davidson says Atom requires four times the juice Snapdragon does. He also notes Qualcomm has announced three customers so far for its new chip: handset makers Samsung and HTC, and GPS-device maker Mio. Presumably, there are more to come.
對於手機與筆記型電腦之間的這塊處女市場，高通並非是唯一有興趣的公司。Intel(INTC)同樣也專注於MID(智慧型行動裝置)市場，開發Atom處理器。高通聲稱其處理器的電力效能勝過Intel的晶片。Davidson表示Atom需要的電力是Snapdragon的四倍，且目前高通已經宣佈目前新晶片的三家客戶：手機製造商Samsung與HTC，以及GPS設備製造商Mio；相信未來還會持續增加。
Sun & Clouds: SunPower will build a generating plant. Applied Materials' solar plans didn't stem a downgrade. The Nasdaq ended the week at 2,239, off 0.3%.
晴時多雲：SunPower將興建能源廠。Applied Materials的太陽能計畫也無法遏止股價下跌。Nasdaq指數上週收在2,239，小跌0.3%。
I grilled Davidson on a variety of other issues facing the handset sector; here's some of what he said.
我也針對手機產業面對的其他議題請教Davidson，以下面是他的一些看法：
Qualcomm, which beat Street expectations in the March quarter, reports June-quarter earnings July 23; don't be surprised to see another strong performance.
高通在其第一季的表現打破了華爾街的預期，並將在本月二十三日公佈第三季數字；不用訝異於另一波強勁的表現。
TWO WEEKS AGO, I penned an item (June 30) about Sun Microsystems, relaying a warning by Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi that the stock (JAVA), while statistically cheap, could prove a value trap. Last week, Sacconaghi previewed Sun's June-quarter earnings, cautioning that results could miss Street estimates. The consensus is for 27 cents a share; Sacconaghi sees 21 cents, noting that on a constant-currency basis, revenues have been below year-earlier levels the past four quarters.
兩個星期前，我寫了篇關於Sun Microsystems的報導（6月30日），傳達了Bernstein Research分析師Toni Sacconaghi提出的警告，表示其股票(Java)儘管看來便宜，卻可能是個價格陷阱。Sacconaghi在上週先行瀏覽了該公司第三季獲利，並告誡其結果可能不如華爾街的預測。普遍認為是每股0.27元，但Sacconaghi認為是0.21，並表示若以固定貨幣為基礎，其收益是低於過去四季的水平。
Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with Global Equities Research, asserted in a research note last week that "a search is probably on to find a new CEO at Sun." Since current chief Jonathan Schwartz succeeded Scott McNealy in April 2006, the stock has lost half of its value and now sits close to a 13-year low. (It's down 10% over the past two weeks.) Among the huge number of comments on my blog last week in response to several posts on Sun were many from current or former Sun employees proposing the company dump "the Ponytail," a reference to Schwartz's trademark hair style.
Global Equities Research 分析師Trip Chowdhry在上週的研究報告中斷定「該公司可能已經開始尋找新的執行長了」。自從Scott McNealy於2006年四月交棒給現任執行長Jonathan Schwartz以來，股票市值已經跌了一半，目前接近十三年來的低點（過去兩週來又跌了10%）。上週在我部落格針對一些Sun公司的文章發表意見的人，有不少現任與之前的員工，他們都提議公司解僱那個「馬尾男」，也就是Schwartz的招牌髮型。
At some point, you have to wonder if KKR -- which in early 2007 sank $700 million into two series of low-yielding Sun convertible issues now far out of the money -- or some other private-equity shop might consider taking Sun private. Sun does, after all, have $3.3 billion of net cash, about 45% of its $7.1 billion market cap. But with the private- equity market dormant, IT spending under pressure and the Street unconvinced a turnaround is near, you'd be hard-pressed to find a reason to get buzzed on JAVA.
就某個層面來說，你不得不懷疑KKR或其他私募基金想要買下Sun，其中KKR曾在2007年投入美金7億元買入Sun公司的兩隻低孳息可轉換債，而目前卻碰都不想碰。Sun手中確實有33億元的淨現金，約是其市場資本71億元的45%，但由於私募基金不甚活躍，IT產業支出面壓力大，以及是市場上不見經濟好轉的樂觀跡象，你很難找到個好理由享受JAVA。
*********************************
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By ERIC J. SAVITZ
iPhone 3G 一開通 高通贏面跟著來
By ERIC J. SAVITZ
Qualcomm is set to cash in on the growth in smartphones.
Gadget of the Week: Apple iPhone 3G
高通計畫透過智慧型手機的成長大賺一番
本週小玩意兒：蘋果iPhone 3G
BY THE TIME YOU READ THIS, the first wave of Apple (ticker: AAPL) enthusiasts will have their hands on the nifty new iPhone 3G. It has several key improvements over the original model, in particular its ability to use speedy 3G networks for accessing the Web. The phone's debut has implications for a host of other companies: It sets the stage for a dramatic increase in Apple's share of the handset market, thus raising the bar for players who wish to enter or stay competitive, and it provides a new software platform for application developers. It also turns 3G into a mainstream technology. And that is good news, indeed, for Qualcomm (QCOM).
當你看到這時，蘋果(AAPL)玩家們就已經在把玩時尚精品iPhone 3G了。與一代相比，二代對重要功能做了許多改善，尤其是透過高速3G網路瀏覽網路的功能。對其他公司來說iPhone的出現有許多象徵意義：為增加蘋果手機市佔率搭了舞台，提高對手進入或維持市場競爭力的門檻，同時提供軟體開發人員新的軟體平台。iPhone也順勢讓3G成為主流科技，而對高通來說(QCOM)這確實是個好消息！
Qualcomm has two main businesses. It makes chips for handsets; that business generated $5.8 billion in revenue last year. And it licenses technology to handset makers, a business that raked in $3.1 billion in '07. In a report launching coverage of the stock with a Buy rating, Citigroup's Glen Yeung noted last week that Qualcomm collects a royalty on almost every 3G phone sold (except Nokia phones; it is embroiled in a messy royalty dispute with Nokia [NOK]).
高通有兩項主要業務：生產手機晶片，並在去年達到營收美金58億元；而透過核准技術廠商執照，在2007年為公司帶來31億元的營收。花旗分析師Glen Yeung的投資報告中建議買入該公司股票，並在上週指出，幾乎每賣出一隻3G手機，高通都可以進行抽稅（Nokia手機除外，該公司捲入與Nokia間的龐大稅金糾紛）。
Yeung also observed that Qualcomm is a direct beneficiary of the growing market for smartphones. Apple is providing evidence that smartphones are an increasingly popular choice for consumers as well as corporate Crackberry users. And, Yeung notes, as buyers switch from older, cheaper "feature phones" to more capable -- and more expensive -- smartphones, Qualcomm benefits.
Yeung同時也觀察到高通直接受惠於智慧型手機市場的高度成長。對一般消費者以及企業用戶級的黑莓族來說，蘋果都證明了智慧型手機確實越來越受歡迎。Yeung更指出，當消費者從便宜的基本功能手機換成更多功且昂貴的智慧型手機時，高通便因此而獲利。
I sat down for a chat last week in San Francisco with Bill Davidson, Qualcomm's senior V.P. for global marketing and investor relations. Davidson confirmed Yeung's view that average selling prices for handsets are going up. At the start of the year, Qualcomm had forecast an ASP for the September 2008 fiscal year of $203; the company's most recent estimate is $217. Growing demand for smartphones partly explains the rise, says Davidson, as consumers now want more features in lower-end phones.
上週我在舊金山的時候，和掌管高通全球行銷與投資人關係的資深副理Bill Davidson小聊一番。對於Yeung認為手機平均售價提高這樣的看法表示同意。年初高通預估2008會計年度九月份的股價為美金203元，而公司最近的一次欲估價是217塊。Davidson表示智慧型手機需求面的成長是一部分原因，因為消費者希望低階手機能有更多的功能。
Davidson concedes that ASPs can't continue to increase forever; but he says "you can run scenarios" where the expanding market for smartphones has a positive effect on ASPs "for some time to come."
Davidson承認預估價也不可能永遠攀高，但他也說：因為持續擴大的智慧型手機市場對於股價有正面效益，所以你可以撒一些種子，然後等著它開花結果。
Meanwhile, Davidson sees huge potential for Qualcomm to expand beyond phones, due to its new Snapdragon processor. He imagines the Snapdragon powering two classes of devices: "pocketable computing devices," with four- to seven-inch screens, and "mobile computing devices" with seven- to 10-inch screens. Think oversized iPhones at one end and small laptops on the other.
另一方面，Davidson也看到了高通在手機市場以外的巨大潛力：Snapdragon處理器。他想像著Snapdragon搭配並強化兩種裝置，一種是有著四到七吋螢幕的「口袋電腦」，另一種是七至十吋螢幕的「行動電腦」。也就是放大版的iPhone還有縮小版的筆記型電腦。
Qualcomm isn't the only company targeting the uncharted turf between phones and laptops; Intel (INTC) also has zeroed in on the new MID (mobile intelligent device) market, with its new Atom processor. Qualcomm contends it has a power advantage over Intel's chip; Davidson says Atom requires four times the juice Snapdragon does. He also notes Qualcomm has announced three customers so far for its new chip: handset makers Samsung and HTC, and GPS-device maker Mio. Presumably, there are more to come.
對於手機與筆記型電腦之間的這塊處女市場，高通並非是唯一有興趣的公司。Intel(INTC)同樣也專注於MID(智慧型行動裝置)市場，開發Atom處理器。高通聲稱其處理器的電力效能勝過Intel的晶片。Davidson表示Atom需要的電力是Snapdragon的四倍，且目前高通已經宣佈目前新晶片的三家客戶：手機製造商Samsung與HTC，以及GPS設備製造商Mio；相信未來還會持續增加。
Sun & Clouds: SunPower will build a generating plant. Applied Materials' solar plans didn't stem a downgrade. The Nasdaq ended the week at 2,239, off 0.3%.
晴時多雲：SunPower將興建能源廠。Applied Materials的太陽能計畫也無法遏止股價下跌。Nasdaq指數上週收在2,239，小跌0.3%。
I grilled Davidson on a variety of other issues facing the handset sector; here's some of what he said.
我也針對手機產業面對的其他議題請教Davidson，以下面是他的一些看法：
- On the iPhone 3G: Apple has forced the whole industry to focus more on software and user interfaces. The question is whether Apple will stay at the high end, or sell devices at multiple price points, as it did with the iPod. If it does the latter, volume can grow "a lot bigger."
- iPhone 3G：蘋果讓業界重新聚焦在軟體以及使用者界面上。問題在於，蘋果是否能保持在前端，或是如同iPod一般以多種價格進行銷售；如果是後者，銷售量將會更大。
- On the impact of a slower economy: Growth in the mobile-phone market hasn't been affected in the past by macro slowdowns. And even if overall handset-unit growth slows in 2009, Qualcomm should benefit from increasing adoption of the CDMA standard, which drives its top-line growth. "We're still well-positioned for years to come."
- 經濟衰弱的影響：行動電話市場的成長在過去並未受到大環境不景氣的影響。即使整體手機的成長在2009年趨緩，高通也會受惠於CDMA標準的採用，進而提高公司營收數字，「對於未來幾年，我們的卡位都很不錯」。
- On the woes at Motorola (MOT): Contrary to some on the Street, Motorola doesn't face an "insurmountable challenge," and there is still equity in the Motorola brand. "It's a hit-driven business, and that capability still exists for them." But fixing Motorola will take time. If Davidson were asked to be CEO -- not that he's volunteering -- he'd ask the board for three years to turn things around.
- 對Motorola(MOT)哀號的看法：與其他公司相比，Motorola面對的並非是跨越不了的挑戰，Motorola品牌仍有價值。「這是一個熱門的產業，而他們的動能還是存在的」，Motorola需要一些時間進行調整。如果Davidson是執行長（倒不是他自願這麼做），他會要求董事會在三年內扭轉乾坤。
- On the future for Palm (PALM): "Based on who is over there, I hope we see good things." Davidson still has a U.S. Robotics-branded Palm Pilot in his office. "It was very simple to use, but didn't evolve much after that. It never got more functional." A comeback is possible. "Apple has shown, if you execute well, a decent amount of people will pay a lot for a handset."
- Palm(PALM)的未來：「因為站在那兒的人是它，所以我希望一切平安順利」。Davidson的辦公室現在還有一個U.S. Robotics-branded Palm Pilot導航器。「它操作起來相當簡單，但之後都沒有進化的機種，再也沒有新增其他功能了。其實捲土重來未嘗不可，蘋果也證明了，只要好好幹，就會有一推人花大錢在手機上」。
- On the prospects for WiMax, a standard on which Qualcomm has no royalty claims: Davidson is a skeptic, recalling the talk that ubiquitous municipal WiFi networks threatened 3G. "It's not even competitive with 3G networks laid out today in terms of performance."
- WiMax的前景，目前高通對此技術仍無稅金權：Davidson抱著相當懷疑的態度，說起過去普遍存在WiFi網路將威脅3G的言論。「就效能表現來說，WiFi根本比不上3G網絡」。
Qualcomm, which beat Street expectations in the March quarter, reports June-quarter earnings July 23; don't be surprised to see another strong performance.
高通在其第一季的表現打破了華爾街的預期，並將在本月二十三日公佈第三季數字；不用訝異於另一波強勁的表現。
TWO WEEKS AGO, I penned an item (June 30) about Sun Microsystems, relaying a warning by Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi that the stock (JAVA), while statistically cheap, could prove a value trap. Last week, Sacconaghi previewed Sun's June-quarter earnings, cautioning that results could miss Street estimates. The consensus is for 27 cents a share; Sacconaghi sees 21 cents, noting that on a constant-currency basis, revenues have been below year-earlier levels the past four quarters.
兩個星期前，我寫了篇關於Sun Microsystems的報導（6月30日），傳達了Bernstein Research分析師Toni Sacconaghi提出的警告，表示其股票(Java)儘管看來便宜，卻可能是個價格陷阱。Sacconaghi在上週先行瀏覽了該公司第三季獲利，並告誡其結果可能不如華爾街的預測。普遍認為是每股0.27元，但Sacconaghi認為是0.21，並表示若以固定貨幣為基礎，其收益是低於過去四季的水平。
Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with Global Equities Research, asserted in a research note last week that "a search is probably on to find a new CEO at Sun." Since current chief Jonathan Schwartz succeeded Scott McNealy in April 2006, the stock has lost half of its value and now sits close to a 13-year low. (It's down 10% over the past two weeks.) Among the huge number of comments on my blog last week in response to several posts on Sun were many from current or former Sun employees proposing the company dump "the Ponytail," a reference to Schwartz's trademark hair style.
Global Equities Research 分析師Trip Chowdhry在上週的研究報告中斷定「該公司可能已經開始尋找新的執行長了」。自從Scott McNealy於2006年四月交棒給現任執行長Jonathan Schwartz以來，股票市值已經跌了一半，目前接近十三年來的低點（過去兩週來又跌了10%）。上週在我部落格針對一些Sun公司的文章發表意見的人，有不少現任與之前的員工，他們都提議公司解僱那個「馬尾男」，也就是Schwartz的招牌髮型。
At some point, you have to wonder if KKR -- which in early 2007 sank $700 million into two series of low-yielding Sun convertible issues now far out of the money -- or some other private-equity shop might consider taking Sun private. Sun does, after all, have $3.3 billion of net cash, about 45% of its $7.1 billion market cap. But with the private- equity market dormant, IT spending under pressure and the Street unconvinced a turnaround is near, you'd be hard-pressed to find a reason to get buzzed on JAVA.
就某個層面來說，你不得不懷疑KKR或其他私募基金想要買下Sun，其中KKR曾在2007年投入美金7億元買入Sun公司的兩隻低孳息可轉換債，而目前卻碰都不想碰。Sun手中確實有33億元的淨現金，約是其市場資本71億元的45%，但由於私募基金不甚活躍，IT產業支出面壓力大，以及是市場上不見經濟好轉的樂觀跡象，你很難找到個好理由享受JAVA。
*********************************
$$Copyright: 原文所有權為 Barron's 所有，嚴禁使用於商業用途$$
##Copyleft: 中文所有權為本網站所有，歡迎告知後取用##