失業當自強第二彈 ~ 霸榮也不能少: The Ball is in the Bear's Court
多方涉獵...媒體都是騙人的...多看總是好...
不過Barron's 很小氣，都不給人家看免費的過期版本...所以只好看online exclusive...
雖然感覺弱了一點，但沒魚蝦也好...以下：
The Ball is in the Bears' Court
By MICHAEL KAHN
球還在大熊手中呢！
Michael Kahn
Technical signs point to the end of the March -- May rally and the beginning of less agreeable conditions.
科技股指數顯示三月到五月的拉力賽已經結束，也開啟了更多未知數
The Market's Mood
市場的態度
THE STOCK MARKET HAS now been falling for two weeks and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved below its rising trendline (see Chart 1). Given a plethora of technical evidence now in place, the bears have been taking the market back piece by piece and there is good reason to expect them to take advantage of their new standing.
股市已經連續下跌兩週，而道瓊工業指數表現也在水平之下（見表一）。科技類股大失血是顯而易見的，熊市的到來正點滴侵蝕著市場，相信空頭市場會帶來一番新氣象。
Chart 1 表一
Technical resistance is now in place since twice last month, the Dow was stopped at roughly 13,135 and when it fell below 12,715 it completed a "double top." This pattern is shaped like the letter "M" and only when prices fall below the middle trough of the pattern do chart watchers get their signal to sell. They got it on May 21.
科技股的反彈，從上個月來已經發生兩次了。道瓊指數停在約13,135點，而當它降到12,715點時，「雙峰」便出現了，有點像是M的樣子。當價格低於中間的谷底時，就是觀察者準備賣出的時候了，而這時間，是在五月21日。
But we have to keep things in perspective. The pattern was certainly in proportion to the rally it is supposed to be ending but the whole rally and reversal are still rather small time moves. In other words, let's not read long-term implications from the end of a short-term rally. It was a bearish event, for sure, but it would take new lows for the year to tell us that another significant leg lower on par with the October -- January decline is at hand.
但是我們必須看清楚整件事。這樣的曲線其實是在比例上反應大趨勢的，只是目前反轉的慢了一點。換句話說，我們不可以透過短期線型的結束來預測長期趨勢。這很明顯的是看空的行為，而在今年所帶來的新低點，會告訴我們在十月到明年一月的下跌肯定是會發生的。
In order to understand the new power of the bears we have to examine how they got it. When the double top pattern was completed, the Dow also suffered another technical blow -- a breakout failure. In April, the market moved higher from a big January-April trading range to set a rather bullish tone despite continuing credit problems and rising energy costs. The market was speaking.
想要知道熊市的威力，就得要知道它是怎麼來的。當雙峰線型出現，道瓊也會遭到科技風暴的席捲：breakout failure （真的不會翻）。四月的股市衝破第一季交易量，在一片信貸風暴與能源飆漲中，創造牛市。這就是市場在說話。
By measuring the size of the trading range and projecting it up from the breakout point, the rally "should" have continued to 13,870. This is a common way of gauging how much pent up demand existed in the range. And as ace technical analyst Ralph Acampora once said, "The bigger the base, the higher in space." Trading ranges are bases from which rallies emerge.
觀察交易量的規模，並從爆大量的地方延伸出去，照理說應該會衝到13,870點。對於衡量被壓抑的需求量，是非常普遍的方式。如同科技龍頭分析師Ralph Acampora說過：底量越大，飛的越高！交易量差就是這場拉力賽噴發力道的基礎。
But not all technical signals work and the Dow did not even get close to its target. By moving well back down into its old range, the rally was confirmed to be over and the market not as healthy as it looked on the surface. Falling trading volume and persistent high numbers of new 52-week lows had finally taken their toll.
但是並非所有科技股的燈號都正常，而道瓊甚至也達不到目標。指數下跌到以前的量差，顯是好景已經結束，而市場體質也不如表面上的健全。交易量持續下跌到達52週以來的新低點，終將付出了代價。
So now what? Does the market go back down to its January and March lows? While my inner bear thinks so, there is a nagging contrary indicator to consider. Investors are suddenly very bearish as a group.
那現在呢？市場會回到第一季的低點嗎？我心中的那頭熊雖然這麼想，但卻有個細微的聲音反對著。投資人不約而同地熊了起來。
According to a American Association of Individual Investors survey released last week, the percentage of investors considering themselves bears has risen to 45%, an usually high number. When sentiment readings such as this move to extreme levels, the market often reacts by moving in the opposite direction. In other words, bearishness can be a buy signal for contrarians.
根據上週美國個人投資協會的研究，看空的投資人異常地提高到45％。當這樣的情緒到達一個極端值，市場通常會往反方向反應。也就是說，這次的空頭對非典型投資者來說，是個買點。
But sentiment analysis is a tough game and any indicator can signal an extreme condition long before the market actually makes a move. Take this latest indicator of bearish sentiment as something to temper bearish views rather than a precursor of bullishness. For now, the bears have the ball.
但是情緒的分析是個詭譎的遊戲，在市場真正改變之前，任何指標都可以視為極端。最近的空頭態勢應該不是牛市來臨前的預兆，而是撫平期待做空的觀點。現在，球在大熊的手上。
Follow up on Bonds
跟著債市走
Last week, I wrote that the Treasury bond market's weakness was another problem for the stock market as rising interest rates in a non-deflationary environment where bad for stocks (see Getting Technical, "How Long Can Stocks Ignore Treasuries?" May 29). Since that time, bond prices have rallied and yields have declined but the overall conclusions reached remain intact (see Chart 2).
上週我提到，於非通貨緊縮的環境下升息對股市是不好的，而造成國債市場的疲軟更是另一個問題。（參閱五月29日的科技上手「股市還可以無視債市多久？」）從那時候開始，公債價格上漲，收益率下降，但整體看來仍是好的。（見表二）
Chart 2 表二
The chart shows that while the 30-year yield has dipped back below the 4.70% breakout level identified last week, the pullback has not invalidated the breakout itself. Yields only dipped roughly 2% below that level and that is well within the realm of an acceptable correction. Further, yields remain above the rising trendline drawn from the March low so from a practical point of view the bull market in yields and bear market in bond prices remains intact.
表二顯示，當三十年期債的收益率跌破上週的4.70%時，拉回的力量還沒辦法止跌。收益率在水平線之下小跌2%，這還算是可接受的修正範圍。另外，收益率都還落在三月低點以來的上升趨勢線之上，所以從實際面來看，收益率牛市以及債券熊市的這個觀點，還是堅不可破的。
And so do the implications for the stock market. Lower stock prices seem more likely than higher prices with the caveat that heavy bearishness among individual investors has removed one source of potential sellers from the market.
同樣的跡象也可套用於股市。比起代表警訊的高股價，低廉的股價更能夠在濃厚空頭氣氛中，將一部分潛在賣家掃出號子。
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不過Barron's 很小氣，都不給人家看免費的過期版本...所以只好看online exclusive...
雖然感覺弱了一點，但沒魚蝦也好...以下：
The Ball is in the Bears' Court
By MICHAEL KAHN
球還在大熊手中呢！
Michael Kahn
Technical signs point to the end of the March -- May rally and the beginning of less agreeable conditions.
科技股指數顯示三月到五月的拉力賽已經結束，也開啟了更多未知數
The Market's Mood
市場的態度
THE STOCK MARKET HAS now been falling for two weeks and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved below its rising trendline (see Chart 1). Given a plethora of technical evidence now in place, the bears have been taking the market back piece by piece and there is good reason to expect them to take advantage of their new standing.
股市已經連續下跌兩週，而道瓊工業指數表現也在水平之下（見表一）。科技類股大失血是顯而易見的，熊市的到來正點滴侵蝕著市場，相信空頭市場會帶來一番新氣象。
Chart 1 表一
Technical resistance is now in place since twice last month, the Dow was stopped at roughly 13,135 and when it fell below 12,715 it completed a "double top." This pattern is shaped like the letter "M" and only when prices fall below the middle trough of the pattern do chart watchers get their signal to sell. They got it on May 21.
科技股的反彈，從上個月來已經發生兩次了。道瓊指數停在約13,135點，而當它降到12,715點時，「雙峰」便出現了，有點像是M的樣子。當價格低於中間的谷底時，就是觀察者準備賣出的時候了，而這時間，是在五月21日。
But we have to keep things in perspective. The pattern was certainly in proportion to the rally it is supposed to be ending but the whole rally and reversal are still rather small time moves. In other words, let's not read long-term implications from the end of a short-term rally. It was a bearish event, for sure, but it would take new lows for the year to tell us that another significant leg lower on par with the October -- January decline is at hand.
但是我們必須看清楚整件事。這樣的曲線其實是在比例上反應大趨勢的，只是目前反轉的慢了一點。換句話說，我們不可以透過短期線型的結束來預測長期趨勢。這很明顯的是看空的行為，而在今年所帶來的新低點，會告訴我們在十月到明年一月的下跌肯定是會發生的。
In order to understand the new power of the bears we have to examine how they got it. When the double top pattern was completed, the Dow also suffered another technical blow -- a breakout failure. In April, the market moved higher from a big January-April trading range to set a rather bullish tone despite continuing credit problems and rising energy costs. The market was speaking.
想要知道熊市的威力，就得要知道它是怎麼來的。當雙峰線型出現，道瓊也會遭到科技風暴的席捲：breakout failure （真的不會翻）。四月的股市衝破第一季交易量，在一片信貸風暴與能源飆漲中，創造牛市。這就是市場在說話。
By measuring the size of the trading range and projecting it up from the breakout point, the rally "should" have continued to 13,870. This is a common way of gauging how much pent up demand existed in the range. And as ace technical analyst Ralph Acampora once said, "The bigger the base, the higher in space." Trading ranges are bases from which rallies emerge.
觀察交易量的規模，並從爆大量的地方延伸出去，照理說應該會衝到13,870點。對於衡量被壓抑的需求量，是非常普遍的方式。如同科技龍頭分析師Ralph Acampora說過：底量越大，飛的越高！交易量差就是這場拉力賽噴發力道的基礎。
But not all technical signals work and the Dow did not even get close to its target. By moving well back down into its old range, the rally was confirmed to be over and the market not as healthy as it looked on the surface. Falling trading volume and persistent high numbers of new 52-week lows had finally taken their toll.
但是並非所有科技股的燈號都正常，而道瓊甚至也達不到目標。指數下跌到以前的量差，顯是好景已經結束，而市場體質也不如表面上的健全。交易量持續下跌到達52週以來的新低點，終將付出了代價。
So now what? Does the market go back down to its January and March lows? While my inner bear thinks so, there is a nagging contrary indicator to consider. Investors are suddenly very bearish as a group.
那現在呢？市場會回到第一季的低點嗎？我心中的那頭熊雖然這麼想，但卻有個細微的聲音反對著。投資人不約而同地熊了起來。
According to a American Association of Individual Investors survey released last week, the percentage of investors considering themselves bears has risen to 45%, an usually high number. When sentiment readings such as this move to extreme levels, the market often reacts by moving in the opposite direction. In other words, bearishness can be a buy signal for contrarians.
根據上週美國個人投資協會的研究，看空的投資人異常地提高到45％。當這樣的情緒到達一個極端值，市場通常會往反方向反應。也就是說，這次的空頭對非典型投資者來說，是個買點。
But sentiment analysis is a tough game and any indicator can signal an extreme condition long before the market actually makes a move. Take this latest indicator of bearish sentiment as something to temper bearish views rather than a precursor of bullishness. For now, the bears have the ball.
但是情緒的分析是個詭譎的遊戲，在市場真正改變之前，任何指標都可以視為極端。最近的空頭態勢應該不是牛市來臨前的預兆，而是撫平期待做空的觀點。現在，球在大熊的手上。
Follow up on Bonds
跟著債市走
Last week, I wrote that the Treasury bond market's weakness was another problem for the stock market as rising interest rates in a non-deflationary environment where bad for stocks (see Getting Technical, "How Long Can Stocks Ignore Treasuries?" May 29). Since that time, bond prices have rallied and yields have declined but the overall conclusions reached remain intact (see Chart 2).
上週我提到，於非通貨緊縮的環境下升息對股市是不好的，而造成國債市場的疲軟更是另一個問題。（參閱五月29日的科技上手「股市還可以無視債市多久？」）從那時候開始，公債價格上漲，收益率下降，但整體看來仍是好的。（見表二）
Chart 2 表二
The chart shows that while the 30-year yield has dipped back below the 4.70% breakout level identified last week, the pullback has not invalidated the breakout itself. Yields only dipped roughly 2% below that level and that is well within the realm of an acceptable correction. Further, yields remain above the rising trendline drawn from the March low so from a practical point of view the bull market in yields and bear market in bond prices remains intact.
表二顯示，當三十年期債的收益率跌破上週的4.70%時，拉回的力量還沒辦法止跌。收益率在水平線之下小跌2%，這還算是可接受的修正範圍。另外，收益率都還落在三月低點以來的上升趨勢線之上，所以從實際面來看，收益率牛市以及債券熊市的這個觀點，還是堅不可破的。
And so do the implications for the stock market. Lower stock prices seem more likely than higher prices with the caveat that heavy bearishness among individual investors has removed one source of potential sellers from the market.
同樣的跡象也可套用於股市。比起代表警訊的高股價，低廉的股價更能夠在濃厚空頭氣氛中，將一部分潛在賣家掃出號子。
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$$Copyright: 原文所有權為 Barron's 所有，嚴禁使用於商業用途$$
##Copyleft: 中文所有權為本網站所有，歡迎告知後取用##